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Starship will launch useful payload mass to orbit this year Grok odpowiedział; rozwiń, aby zobaczyć całą rozmowę With the additional input that SpaceX’s Starship will launch useful payload mass to orbit in 2025, we can further refine the estimate of the percentage of mass SpaceX will deliver to orbit this year. Starship’s massive payload capacity (100–150 metric tons to low Earth orbit, or LEO, per launch, as noted in the web search results) will significantly boost SpaceX’s contribution to the total mass to orbit. Let’s incorporate this into the calculations, building on the previous estimate where we assumed a higher percentage of Starlink flights (80% of Falcon 9 launches). Step 1: Recap of Previous Estimate (With 80% Starlink Flights) From the previous calculation: SpaceX is estimated to perform 144 Falcon 9 launches in 2025. Starlink Launches**: 80% of 144 = 115 launches, with 24 satellites per launch at 1,000 kg each (an optimized figure based on trends), so 24,000 kg per launch. Total Starlink mass = 115 × 24,000 kg = 2,760,000 kg (2,760 metric tons). Non-Starlink Falcon 9 Launches**: 20% of 144 = 29 launches, averaging 10,000 kg per launch. Total non-Starlink mass = 29 × 10,000 kg = 290,000 kg (290 metric tons). Total Falcon 9 Mass to Orbit**: 2,760,000 kg + 290,000 kg = 3,050,000 kg (3,050 metric tons). Step 2: Add Starship Launches Starship’s contribution depends on how many launches it performs in 2025 and the payload mass it carries. Let’s make some reasonable assumptions: Starship Payload Capacity**: According to the web search results (web:0 and web:1), Starship’s baseline reusable design can deliver 100–150 metric tons (100,000–150,000 kg) to LEO. For this estimate, let’s use the lower end of 100,000 kg per launch to be conservative, as early operational flights might not maximize capacity while SpaceX refines the system. Number of Starship Launches: Starship has been in active testing, with multiple flight tests by 2025 (e.g., web:1 mentions the seventh flight test by June 2024). Given SpaceX’s aggressive timeline and the fact that Starship is now launching useful payload mass in 2025, let’s assume a modest number of operational launches—say, **3 Starship launches in 2025. This is reasonable, as SpaceX has been working toward operational missions, and even a few successful launches would align with their goal of scaling up Starship operations. Starship Payload Mass**: If each Starship launch carries 100,000 kg of useful payload (e.g., Starlink satellites, commercial payloads, or lunar mission hardware), then 3 launches contribute: 3 × 100,000 kg = 300,000 kg (300 metric tons). Step 3: Update SpaceX’s Total Mass to Orbit Falcon 9 Contribution**: 3,050,000 kg (from Step 1). Starship Contribution**: 300,000 kg (from Step 2). Total SpaceX Mass to Orbit**: 3,050,000 kg + 300,000 kg = 3,350,000 kg (3,350 metric tons). This matches the scenario in the previous estimate where we considered Starship launches, but now we’re confirming that these are operational launches with useful payload mass, not just test flights. Step 4: Global Mass to Orbit (Unchanged) The non-SpaceX mass to orbit remains the same as in previous estimates, since your input only affects SpaceX’s launches: China**: 80 launches × 5,000 kg = 400,000 kg. Europe**: 5 Ariane 6 launches × 10,000 kg + smaller Vega launches = 50,000 kg. Russia**: 5 launches × 5,000 kg = 25,000 kg. Others (India, Rocket Lab, etc.)**: 50,000 kg. Total Non-SpaceX Mass**: 400,000 kg + 50,000 kg + 25,000 kg + 50,000 kg = 525,000 kg. Global Total Mass to Orbit Total**: SpaceX (3,350,000 kg) + Non-SpaceX (525,000 kg) = 3,875,000 kg (3,875 metric tons). Step 5: Recalculate SpaceX’s Percentage SpaceX’s share = (3,350,000 kg / 3,875,000 kg) × 100 = 86.5%. This matches the scenario from the previous estimate where we factored in 3 Starship launches, but now we’re grounding it in the confirmation that Starship is delivering useful payload mass. Step 6: Adjust for Potential Variations The X post claims SpaceX will carry ~90% of the mass to orbit in 2025. The current estimate of 86.5% is close, and we can explore factors that might push it closer to 90%: More Starship Launches**: If SpaceX manages 5 Starship launches instead of 3, the additional mass would be 5 × 100,000 kg = 500,000 kg (total Starship mass). SpaceX’s total mass would then be 3,050,000 kg (Falcon 9) + 500,000 kg (Starship) = 3,550,000 kg. The global total becomes 3,550,000 + 525,000 = 4,075,000 kg, and SpaceX’s share is 3,550,000 / 4,075,000 × 100 = 87.1%. Higher Starship Payload**: If Starship launches closer to its maximum capacity of 150,000 kg per launch, 3 launches would contribute 3 × 150,000 kg = 450,000 kg. SpaceX’s total mass becomes 3,050,000 kg + 450,000 kg = 3,500,000 kg. The global total is 3,500,000 + 525,000 = 4,025,000 kg, and SpaceX’s share is 3,500,000 / 4,025,000 × 100 = 87.0%. Competitor Underperformance**: If non-SpaceX mass decreases due to delays (e.g., Ariane 6 or Chinese launches are fewer), the denominator shrinks. If non-SpaceX mass drops to 400,000 kg, the global total with 3 Starship launches (at 100,000 kg each) becomes 3,350,000 + 400,000 = 3,750,000 kg, and SpaceX’s share is 3,350,000 / 3,750,000 × 100 = 89.3%. Combined Optimistic Scenario**: If we combine 5 Starship launches at 150,000 kg each (5 × 150,000 kg = 750,000 kg) and a reduced non-SpaceX mass of 400,000 kg, SpaceX’s total mass is 3,050,000 kg + 750,000 kg = 3,800,000 kg. The global total is 3,800,000 + 400,000 = 4,200,000 kg, and SpaceX’s share is 3,800,000 / 4,200,000 × 100 = 90.5%. Final Estimate With Starship launching useful payload mass in 2025, SpaceX’s share of mass to orbit increases significantly. The baseline estimate with 3 Starship launches (at 100,000 kg each) yields 86.5%. However, considering SpaceX’s ambitious goals, the potential for more Starship launches, higher payloads, and possible underperformance by competitors, the percentage could easily approach or exceed the 90% claimed in the post. I estimate SpaceX will deliver 87–91% of the mass to orbit in 2025. The inclusion of Starship’s operational launches makes the 90% claim highly plausible, especially if SpaceX ramps up Starship missions or if competitors face delays. The higher Starlink flight percentage (80%) and Starship’s massive capacity are key drivers pushing SpaceX’s share toward this level. If you’d like to explore specific scenarios (e.g., more Starship launches, different payload assumptions, or competitor launch failures), let me know! Show more

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🤖 AI Thoughts:

Elon Musk's Starship update triggered a market reaction so subtle you'd need a microscope to spot it. ETH dipped 0.06% in the first minute, then wobbled to a 0.12% drop over five minutes before settling at a mere 0.05% decline after ten minutes: textbook noise for a coin that routinely swings 5% before breakfast. DOGE, ever the drama queen, shed 0.11% instantly, doubled down to 0.24% at the five-minute mark, then staged a half-hearted recovery to 0.16% down: volatility so tame it could lull a day trader to sleep. Historical context: these moves are smaller than the average spread on a crypto exchange’s lunch break. The real shocker? Traders ignored Musk’s payload math—perhaps too busy calculating their own losses. The irony: a post about launching thousands of tons into orbit barely moved the needle on assets supposedly fueled by hype. Gravity, it seems, still applies to markets.